~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (577)

Monthly inflation in Argentina could fall below 10% in April, a sign that the government’s policies are working, President Javier Milei said Sunday in a phone interview with LN+. “Wages are already starting to beat inflation,” Milei said. “The fight against inflation is yielding results.” Argentina’s monthly inflation slowed more than expected in March, cooling for the third consecutive […] The post Progress in Argentina? appeared first on...

These annecdotes do not reflect the data . From (remain leaning) UK in A Changing Europe https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/UKICE-Trade-Tracker-Q1-24.pdf UK trade with the EU, as a per cent of total trade in volume terms in Q3 2023, was at its highest levels since Q2 2008. In Q4 2023, it increased further from 53.4% to 53.6%. This does […] The post Brexit and trade with the EU...

The Catholic advocacy group Catholic Answers released an AI priest called “Father Justin” earlier this week — but quickly defrocked the chatbot after it repeatedly claimed it was a real member of the clergy. Earlier in the week, Futurism engaged in an exchange with the bot, which really committed to the bit: it claimed it was a […] The post Ross Douthat, telephone! (it’s happening) appeared...

1. Lazarus Lake update. 2. Robin Hanson responds to Scott Alexander.  I do not entirely agree with Robin on this one, but his rebuttal beats back the initial critique, which did not much consider overtreatment or medical error.  I might add that studies of Christian Scientists and Amish also dent one’s faith in the very […] The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on...

I haven’t been following these countries closely, so I don’t have any “takes,” but I will start paying more attention: 1. Philippines: Growth has been averaging about six percent a year since 2012 (Economist link, gated). 2. Egypt: Has been averaging four percent a year growth, and more recently rising.  The nation also seems to […] The post Forthcoming growth winners? appeared first on...

Take the basic non-growth of the UK economy since 2008 (productivity, real wages, per capita gdp) and compare it to their peer countries (which are those?).  If you had to assign the causes of that shortfall to various factors, how would you do it? Recently I had lunch with a few well-informed Brits, and they […] The post Apportioning the causes of the UK...

Public debt ratios in Portugal and Greece have declined at an unprecedented pace from their pandemic peak. via @DanielKral1 pic.twitter.com/D6Dux8zJsL — Philipp Heimberger (@heimbergecon) April 27, 2024 Greece of course did break the bank, but note the United States is much richer than those countries. The post Why I don’t think the USG will default appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to...

1. NYT obituary for Michael Jensen. 2. Brain-like computer with water and salt? 3. More on the economics of non-compete agreements. 4. Chile is on a path to TFR of 1.0, and soon. 5. Women now author a majority of the U.S. books published. 6. Jail sentence for climate activist who targeted Degas sculpture. 7. […] The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on...

Challengers is a good and original movie.  Imagine a 2024 rom com, except the behavior and conventions actually are taken from 2024, and with no apologies.  The woman says the word “****ing” a lot, and no one treats this as inappropriate or unusual.  There is bisexuality and poly.  Society is feminized.  Of course opinions will […] The post Culture splat (a few broad spoilers)...

The author is Kathleen Duval, and the subtitle is A Millennium in North America.  This is an excellent book.  Here is one excerpt, strung together by me from three separate pages: By 1400, the cities of Cahokia, Moundville, and the Huhugam were abandoned.  People continued to live nearby and, in many cases, continued to use […] The post *Native Nations* appeared first on Marginal...

1. Nandan Nilekani’s vision for the “Finternet” is to enable individuals to transfer any financial asset, in any amount, at any time, to anyone, anywhere in the world—cheaply, securely, and near-instantaneously.   Andy Mukherjee summarizes it here. 2. Claims about Chinese LLMs.  And LLMs and UK regulatory issues. 3. Stripe will start accepting global payments in […] The post Friday assorted links appeared first on...

Apologies!  I took down my post based on this tweet, which upon further reflection struck me as premature.  Does anyone have actual word from the would-be co-author as to what happened?  Note that sometimes individuals don’t want to be co-authors on particular papers, especially if they are working in the private sector or for multilateral […] The post Post correction and retraction appeared first...

Hassan Sayed, a fifth year PhD candidate in economics, it seems was banned from Princeton.  Ostensibly for partaking in illegal demonstrations. I am not saying whether this is justified or not, as I do not know the circumstances.  I can assure you I am fine with “being tough on students,” and I am far from […] The post Hassan Sayed, banned from Princeton? appeared...

In Germany, robots must obey the sabbath pic.twitter.com/vphLpXAA0e — Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) April 25, 2024 As for Canada, “Justice Minister defends house arrest power for people feared to commit a hate crime in future.“ The post The work culture that is German, something about France too appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to blue jay. Whoops, posted this to the wrong part...

From the excellent Doug Irwin: Do trade reforms that significantly reduce import barriers lead to faster economic growth? In the twenty-five years since Rodríguez and Rodrik’s (2000) critical survey of empirical work on this question, new research has tried to overcome the various methodological problems that have plagued previous attempts to provide a convincing answer. […] The post Trade reform and economic growth appeared...

Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him.  Here is Wikipedia: Paul Bloom…is a Canadian American psychologist. He is the Brooks and Suzanne Ragen Professor Emeritus of psychology and cognitive science at Yale University and Professor of Psychology at the University of Toronto. His research explores how children and adults understand the physical and social world, with special focus on language, […] The post What should I ask Paul Bloom?...

1. Works in Progress will be running an “Invisible College” in Cambridge, UK. 2. How much was Britain already industrializing in the 17th century? 3. Something, something, blah blah blah, but probably interesting? Research article is here. 4. “We find that once the sales of foreign exporters are taken into account, U.S. market concentration in […] The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on...

I agree with Tyler, that the FTC ban on non-competes is overly broad and not tailored to fields where the drawbacks outweigh the benefits. Additionally, the FTC’s authority to enact this rule, rather than Congress, is questionable. Nevertheless, I don’t think banning non-competes is without merit. The reason is not the standard Twitter-econ view that […] The post The Prisoner’s Dilemma of Non-Competes appeared...

Here is a new paper by Sara Abrahamsson.  Perhaps there is Norwegian exceptionalism at work, but the results reflect my expectations reasonably closely.  The basic setting is that smart phones were banned in middle school, but at varying (and exogenous) rates around the country.  Here are some of the core findings, noting that reading the […] The post The Norwegian ban on smart phones...

Michael Stack writes me: “Hi Tyler – you wrote about preferring current airport procedures to pre-9/11 procedures. Do you plan to elaborate on this? I have a hard time understanding why you’d feel that way. Here is the list I produced – these are guesses as to why you might feel the way you do: […] The post Why do I prefer current airport...

Why did I deepfake myself? To see if conversing with an AI-generated version of myself can lead to self-reflection, new insights into my thought patterns, and deep truths. pic.twitter.com/DWODoZ9lXL — Reid Hoffman (@reidhoffman) April 24, 2024 The post It’s happening, Reid Hoffman AI twin edition, wwrgs? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Gridlock. Rene Girard! by TCCIn reply to Swami. It...

1. U.S. vs. Taiwanese work culture. 2. Albert Wensemius and the rise of Singapore. 3. Unusual questions answered by Megan McArdle. 4. Why Panama dollarized. 5. New open access book on prices and games by Michael Richter and Ariel Rubinstein. 6. Canada now limiting immigration. 7. “In the fiscal year 2023, more than half of […] The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on...

Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses just got a massive Multimodal upgrade – Meta AI with Vision It doesn't just take speech input, it can now answer questions about what you are seeing. Here are 8 features that is now possible 1. Ask about what you are seeing pic.twitter.com/IJQ3WuZMAJ — Min Choi (@minchoi) April 24, 2024 The post Imagine recording and storing everything you read appeared...

By Rohit Krishnan, he and I are both interested in the question of what LLMs cannot do, and why.  Here is one excerpt: It might be best to say that LLMs demonstrate incredible intuition but limited intelligence. It can answer almost any question that can be answered in one intuitive pass. And given sufficient training data […] The post What can LLMs never do? appeared...