~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (547)

From the team that brought you Hayek v. Keynes we have the immigration rap battle featuring “George Borjas,” “Garett Jones” and “Stephen Miller” on team build the wall and “Bryan Caplan” and “Alex Nowrasteh” on open the border. I wouldn’t say the actors (AI?), look very much like their real world counterparts but much respect […] The post The Immigration Rap Battle appeared first...

Workers missed an average of 19.4 days because of illness in 2023, according to Techniker Krankenkasse, the country’s largest public health insurance provider. Preliminary figures suggest the trend is on course to continue its upward trajectory, TK told the Financial Times, exacerbating challenges for an economy that many expect to contract for the second year […] The post Germany fact of the day, the...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, as the Cathedral is reopening in December.  The government wants to charge visitors five euros, but the Church is opposed.  Here is part of my proffered solution: First, charge a fee — but make it €10 rather than €5. If seeing Notre Dame is worth only […] The post Should Notre Dame charge admission? appeared...

1. The gender gap in apologies.  Marshall Mo is on the job market from Stanford, and has a very interesting broader portfolio. 2. Haitian zombie show at Quai Branly in Paris (NYT). 3. Is dark energy from black holes? And axions as dark matter? (NYT) 4. The Rational Optimist Society. 5. Repeal the EU AI […] The post Friday assorted links appeared first on...

On average, moving to a 1 standard deviation better instructor would increase a student’s next semester GPA by 0.13 points, and earnings six years after college entry by 17%. Strikingly, value-added is only weakly correlated with student evaluations. An instructor retention policy based on value-added would result in 2.7% higher earnings for students attending Texas […] The post Instructor value-added in higher education appeared...

Science: We examined the impact of sugar exposure within 1000 days since conception on diabetes and hypertension, leveraging quasi-experimental variation from the end of the United Kingdom’s sugar rationing in September 1953. Rationing restricted sugar intake to levels within current dietary guidelines, yet consumption nearly doubled immediately post-rationing. Using an event study design with UK […] The post Sugar Babies appeared first on Marginal...

Corrective policy in sports betting markets is motivated by concerns that demand may be distorted by behavioral bias. We conduct a field experiment with frequent sports bettors to measure the impact of two biases, overoptimism about financial returns and self-control problems, on the demand for sports betting. We find widespread overoptimism about financial returns. The […] The post Are sports bettors overly optimistic? appeared...

We have constructed a comprehensive database that traces the publications of father–son pairs in the premodern academic realm and examined the contribution of inherited human capital versus nepotism to occupational persistence. We find that human capital was strongly transmitted from parents to children and that nepotism declined when the misallocation of talent across professions incurred […] The post The evolution of nepotism in academia,...

1. A mini-autobiography of George Selgin. 2. GLP-1 vs. knee osteoarthritis. 3. Measuring short-term factuality in large language models. 4. One cash transfer study that didn’t work out so well. 5. Everyone bitched about Elon’s pay package, but in fact he was being underpaid. The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Karl Pooper. I had cheez whiz-...

Here is the video, delivered in Chicago, mostly fresh material not in my other talks.  Twenty-seven mimnutes or so, recommended. The post My EconEd talk on how technology is remixing the political spectrum appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Hoc Dolliday. Isn’t the Fox News by far the ... by YoloIn reply to Dismalist. What if the fixers really have no...

President Cyril Ramaphosa earlier this month said economic progress since the formation of the new coalition in June meant annual GDP growth could triple to 3 per cent after a decade at less than 1 per cent. But in the government’s first half-year budget on Wednesday, finance minister Enoch Godongwana cut the growth target for […] The post South Africa update appeared first on...

Here is the audio, video, and transcript.  Here is the intro: Christopher Kirchhoff is an expert in emerging technology who founded the Pentagon’s Silicon Valley office. He’s led teams for President Obama, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and CEO of Google. He’s worked in worlds as far apart as weapons development and […] The post My Conversation with the excellent Christopher...

Past studies find that lower socioeconomic status (SES) individuals are less likely to donate organs. Building on the extended self literature, we propose that this effect occurs in part because the body is more central to the sense of self of lower-SES individuals. We test our predictions across seven studies (N = 8,782) conducted in different countries […] The post How Low Socioeconomic Status Hinders Organ...

1. “The study shows that users with many more criminal verdicts, more time spent in foster care, better primary school grades, and higher childhood socioeconomic status are more hostile on social media, in part, because such factors predict online engagement in political discussions, which is a major correlate of hostility.”  Link here. 2. Is annoyance […] The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on...

America is great. Here if you want further explanation. Hat tip. The post Holy Frak appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsWhat is the curve of light just south of Austin and San ... by El ConquistadorIn reply to mobile. Wikipedia: “By 2010, the average ... by blue jayIn reply to Ricardo. 9/11/2001 It might be after dot-com ... by Dr. DanIf you think...

Interesting, but I think highly flawed on both sides.  Here is one excerpt from the physicist: Physicist: True enough. So we would likely agree that energy growth will not continue indefinitely. But two points before we continue: First, I’ll just mention that energy growth has far outstripped population growth, so that per-capita energy use has surged dramatically over […] The post Dialogue between an economist and a...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one point of several: The crypto revolution also seems to be heading in some dollar-friendly directions. Much recent crypto growth has come in the area of stablecoins, as evidenced by Stripe’s acquisition last week of Bridge. Most stablecoins are denominated in dollars, and typically they are […] The post Don’t bet against the dollar appeared...

Coal consumption in 2030 is now estimated 6% higher than only a year ago. That may sound small, but it amounts to adding the equivalent of the consumption of Japan, the world’s fourth-largest coal burner. By 2030, the IEA now believes coal consumption will remain higher than it was back in 2010… One notable statistic: […] The post The robustness of coal? appeared first...

Phil Tetlock is part of the study, from the Forecasting Research Institute.  Obviously this is very importnt.  From Tetlock’s email to me: “In brief, this study is the largest systematic survey of subject matter experts on the risk posed by nuclear weapons. Through a combination of expert interviews and surveys, 110 domain experts and 41 […] The post New report on nuclear risk appeared...

1. How much do homeowners dislike density? 2. The views of the American public on AI. 3. Centaur is an AI that mimics human behavior, rather trying to be as smart as possible. 4. Nicholas Decker on how to learn economics. 5. Ezra interviews Vivek (NYT). The post Assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Reason. This feels like it...

By their aesthetics shall ye know them: It shaped modern industrial design and continues to inspire architects and product designers the world over, but to some on Germany’s far right, Bauhaus is nothing to celebrate. As the East German city of Dessau prepares to celebrate next year’s centenary of the famed design school’s move there, […] The post AfD vs. Bauhaus appeared first on...

Health care facilities considering mandating staff vaccination face a difficult tradeoff. While additional vaccination coverage will directly reduce disease transmission within the facility, the imposition of a mandate may also cause vaccine-hesitant staff to quit, which could harm patient care. To study this tradeoff, we leverage comprehensive administrative data covering virtually all US nursing homes, […] The post The Health and Employment Effects of...

…even with a population of only about 7.5 million, U.S. already had more business corporations than any other country, and possibly more than all other countries put together, securing its role as the world’s first “corporation nation.” That is from Sylla and Wright, via the excellent Kevin Lewis. The post Sentences to ponder about 1812 America appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply...

Good. The post Apologies, the great Frank Fukuyama still lives! appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsThere’s an “End of Francis Fukuyama” joke in there ... by SierraIn reply to MikeJ1000. Disagreed, and respectfully so, ... by Prof. TomIn reply to Gridlock. Inflation tax. by DismalistI once sent a letter of sympathy to a distant heard upon ... by SumacThe End of History by...