~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (552)

Market up like crazy (especially small caps), 1. Freddie Mac (FMCC) and Fannie Mae (FNMA) stocks just gained 35% and 30% respectively on the 2024 election news https://x.com/Jon_Hartley_/status/1854278771546968569 2. Retail, solar and cannibis stocks all down. https://x.com/Jon_Hartley_/status/1854286070000861638 While the overall stock market today gained on election news of market friendly regulatory and tax policies in the […] The post More market price reactions appeared first...

1. Edwin Frank, Stranger Than Fiction: Lives of the Twentieth Century Novel.  Very good short portraits of various classic novels, including Machado de Assis, Mann’s Magic Mountain, Dr. Moreau, Carpentier, Perec, and others.  At this point I am usually sick of such books but this one I stuck with as it is rewarding throughout. 2. […] The post What I’ve been reading appeared first...

The dollar surged by its most in two years and Wall Street was poised for big gains as Donald Trump’s historic US election victory sent investors around the world scrambling to price in a new regime of trade tariffs and tax cuts. The US currency raced higher against the euro, the yen and the pound […] The post The market price reactions appeared first...

The economy is strong and Trump has a significant opportunity to simply take credit for that if he avoids major disruptions. While he must fulfill some of his campaign promises, people voted for Trump not for his policies per se. Trump has leeway. No one will accuse him of flip-flopping. While these are not my […] The post What is the Best-Case Scenario for...

1. Prediction markets 2. Competitive primary elections 3. Elon 4. French whales 5. The integrity of the American electoral system 6. J.D. Vance 7. The word “trifecta” 8. Twitter 9. Podcasts 10. Long podcasts 11. The Amish 12. Men What else? You don’t have to like all of those outcomes, but that is my assessment.  […] The post Rising in status appeared first on...

That is the central topic of the job market paper of Sahil Chinoy from Harvard University.  Here is the abstract: We study political sorting in the labor market and examine its sources. Merging voter file data and online résumés to create a panel of 34.5 million people, we show that Democrats and Republicans choose distinctive […] The post Political Sorting in the U.S. Labor...

This paper studies the impact of artificial intelligence on innovation, exploiting the randomized introduction of a new materials discovery technology to 1,018 scientists in the R&Dlab of a large U.S. firm. AI-assisted researchers discover 44% more materials, resulting in a 39% increase in patent filings and a 17% rise in downstream product innovation. These compounds […] The post Artificial Intelligence, Scientific Discovery, and Product...

You can re-read it here.  Much-maligned at the time, I might add. The post Reupping my post on the vibe shift appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Anti-Gnostic. I'm sure you'll be the first ... by GridlockIn reply to Peter Akuleyev. It wasn’t close. He now has all ... by Prester JohnIn reply to M. No, I think Europe and India...

Here is the link. The post Track your ballot measure appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Dave T. Over 20 million fewer votes, and it's not ... by Anti-GnosticIn reply to Anti-Gnostic. Because the 2024 total is well less ... by Dave TIt appears that the reformers picked the wrong election to try ... by superdestroyerAlso, while I'm here, how are...

1. Sports and neurodiversity. 2. Twenty-five facts about The Winter’s Tale. 3. How do business owners run governments? 4. Toward a theory of optimal regret. 5. Robots in Japanese nursing homes. 6. The costs of anti-German sentiment during WWI. The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Roger Sweeny. Yeah, that's true, but that's just ... by CBIn...

…comments are open.  Just don’t expect Alex and I to read it… The post If you must discuss today’s events… appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to M. M: I don't believe that the die was cast for ... by blue jayNailed my election forecast!!! ... by John SmithIn reply to John. Hi John, Thanks for the observations. ... by Mark BahnerIn...

Nuclear power plants are designed to withstand a plane crash. We are now getting a live experiment in whether the nuclear sector is built of similar stuff, after federal regulators dropped a bomb on Friday night. In a 2-1 vote, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rejected an amended interconnection agreement for the deal that sparked a frenzy for […] The post The Amazon nuclear project appeared first...

Plans by Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta to build an AI data centre in the US that runs on nuclear power were thwarted in part because a rare species of bee was discovered on land earmarked for the project, according to people familiar with the matter. Zuckerberg had planned to strike a deal with an existing nuclear […] The post How much is a rare bee...

Here is a new paper by the following set of authors: Manuel Hoffmann Harvard Business School, Sam Boysel Harvard Business School, Frank Nagle Harvard Business School, Sida Peng Microsoft Corporation, Kevin Xu GitHub, Inc.  Here is the abstract: Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) technology demonstrate considerable potential to complement human capital intensive activities. While an emerging literature documents wide-ranging productivity effects of AI, relatively […] The post Generative AI and the Nature of...

From a new and very interesting web site on that topic: Significant Increase in Causal Claims: The average proportion of causal claims in papers rose significantly from approximately 5% in 1990 to around 28% in 2020, reflecting the impact of the credibility revolution in economics. Growth in Causal Inference Methods and decline in Theoretical and Simulation Methods… Intricate […] The post Causal claims in economics appeared first...

1. Does the moon around Uranus have an ocean? 2. Those new service sector jobs. 3. Aarthia and Sriram interview Anil Varanasi. 4. Fluoride update. 5. Update on the Worm Wars. 6. This criticism of Roger Scruton is in fact one of the better appreciations of him. The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsHey, let's also ban the Haber-Bosche...

This article conducts a comprehensive analysis of specialization trends within and across fields of economics research. We collect data on 24,273 articles published between 1970 and 2016 in general research economics outlets and employ machine learning techniques to enrich the collected data. Results indicate that theory and econometric methods papers are becoming increasingly specialized, with […] The post Specialization trends in economics appeared first...

This paper documents the effects of new communication technologies on immigrants’ socio-economic integration, spatial and job segregation, and networking behavior. Combining data on home-country Internet expansion shocks with data on immigrants’ linguistic skill, naturalization, location choice, and employment in the US, I find that home-country Internet slows down immigrants’ social and economic integration. The effect […] The post Does the internet limit immigrant assimilation?...

1. Profile of Donald Harris and his economic thought (New Yorker…note I knew of Donald long before I knew of Kamala, and definitely though of him as a Marxist). 2. Final James C. Scott book is coming. 3. Economic effects of Evangelical Christianity. 4. New Murakami novel is coming. 5. New Emmanuel Carrère book is […] The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on...

Does the entry of a large employer to a local labor market increase welfare for residents? To answer this question, I analyze the local effects of the dramatic expansion of Amazon’s fulfillment center (FC) network from 2010 onward. I exploit the staggered roll-out of FCs across large U.S. metros in a difference-in-difference framework. I find […] The post Local Labor Market Effects of Amazon...

I have argued that there are on the order of just 164 thousand very high-IQ workers in the United States. How do we get more? Ian Calaway on the job market from Stanford has an interesting paper arguing that early math mentors can be a force multiplier for students with superior math abilities. Calaway estimates […] The post Increasing the Supply of Very High-IQ...

Happy Birthday Spinoza! The post Spinoza is ten years old today appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to dearieme. “Sharing”. Indeed! by bazzaIn reply to rayward. I recall a post introducing Spinoza ... by bazzaVote for Spinoza on Tuesday! by SJWe went out for lunch yesterday and had the pleasure of sharing ... by deariemeHow did I miss that Cowen has a...

Sandro Luna, Austin, easier ways of getting blood pressure readings. Divyan Bavan, Ontario, 17, machine learning for biology. Michael Domarkas, 17, Surrey, UK, general career support for the biosciences. Saras Agrawal, 17, Alberta, AI to monitor heart attack risk. Charmaine Lee, NYC, music composition and performance. Jodi Ettenberg, Ottawa, podcast on how to deal with […] The post Emergent Ventures winners, 38th cohort appeared...

1. “Using spatial regression discontinuity and instrumental variable designs, we find that areas with greater historical exposure to homesteading are poorer and more rural today.”  From Harvard job market candidate Ross Mattheis. 2. Steve Mariotti, RIP (NYT). 3. Costco hearing aids as loss leader (WSJ). 4. Interview with Cynthia Haven. 5. The new trench warfare […] The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on...