Bookmarks (554)

To track academic writing over time, The Economist analysed 347,000 PhD abstracts published between 1812 and 2023. The dataset was produced by the British Library and represents a majority of English-language doctoral theses awarded by British universities. We reviewed each abstract using the Flesch reading-ease test, which measures sentence and word length to gauge readability. A score of 100 roughly […] The post Is academic writing getting harder to...

1. AI and management tips. 2. What Sam Enright has been reading. 3. The usefulness of AI hallucinations (NYT). 4. Michael Brendan Dougherty on his ideological migration. 5. o3 and its perception abilities. 6. Ezra Klein on stuff (NYT). 7. Richard Perry, RIP (NYT). 8. The history of FRED (NYT). 9. This Little Babe. The post Christmas assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.        ...

Wishing all our readers a wonderful day and New Year! The post Merry Christmas! appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsCommentsRelated StoriesJefferson’s DOGE (that was then, this is now)Stephan Miran nominated to head the CEAIs Indian food the world’s best? 

The post Merry Christmas from Spinoza! appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsCommentsRelated StoriesRecreating the past isn’t easy (but is possible)My Conversation with the excellent Paula Byrne*A Boy’s Own Story* 

Recommended, interesting and humorous throughout. The post Dwarkesh Patel interviews me at the Progress Studies conference appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsCommentsRelated StoriesThe new o3 model from OpenAIWhy you should be talking with gpt about philosophyThe epistemics of drone incursions 

No huge surprises here, but it is getting worse yet: Official statistics show Germany’s birth rate fell to 1.35 children per woman in 2023, below the UN’s “ultra-low” threshold of 1.4 — characterising a scenario where falling birth rates become tough to reverse. Estonia and Austria also passed under the 1.4 threshold, joining the nine […] The post EU facts of the day appeared...

1. Why is Trieste doing such a good job at mental health services? (FT) 2. We are losing squirrel mobility.  However Austan Goolsbee cautions us. 3. Claude analyzes this year’s CWTs. 4. More on the new Kiwi cosmology claims. 5. The economics of the Panama Canal. 6. Do all NBA teams play the same way? […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

o1 and o1-pro are a cut above other models at economic history writing. they can combine knowledge of historical facts with economic analysis in a *much* more creative and cogent way than earlier models. it’s not just math and code, folks. Here is the link. The post Dean Ball speaks appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsCommentsRelated StoriesArtificial Intelligence in the Knowledge EconomyThe importance...

Emily Nussbaum, Cue the Sun! The Invention of Reality TV.  Despite its excellent reviews, I resisted buying this book for a while, because most books on TV are not good.  It is intrinsically difficult to write about the medium, and also many of the people who want to just aren’t that smart.  But the Nussbaum […] The post What I’ve been reading appeared first...

We quantify the aggregate, regional and sectoral impacts of transportation productivity growth on the US economy over the period 1947-2017. Using a multi-region, multi-sector model that explicitly captures produced transportation services as a key input to interregional trade, we find that the calibrated change in transportation productivity had a sizable impact on aggregate welfare, magnified […] The post The importance of transportation for productivity...

New claims about cosmology.  Paper here.  Big if true.  It seems the key innovation is to make time pass at varying speeds in different parts of the galaxy? The post New claims about cosmology appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsCommentsRelated StoriesJefferson’s DOGE (that was then, this is now)The show so far, DOGE editionIncarceration sentences to ponder 

1. The World Bank is backing mega-dams again. 2. Good review of the new McCartney biography. 3. Syllabi of great stuff. 4. Pick-up truck as Pakistani status symbol. 5. “We’re building Retainit, an AI-powered game for the podcasts you’re already listening to. We’d love to hear whether CWT listeners enjoy this AI-hosted game show for the […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...

Yes, I will be doing a Conversation with him.  Here is from Wikipedia: Joe Boyd (born August 5, 1942) is an American record producer and writer. He formerly owned Hannibal Records. Boyd has worked on recordings of Pink Floyd, Fairport Convention, Sandy Denny, Richard Thompson, Nick Drake, The Incredible String Band, R.E.M., Vashti Bunyan, John and Beverley Martyn, Maria Muldaur, Kate & Anna McGarrigle, Billy Bragg, James Booker, 10,000 Maniacs, and Muzsikás. He was also one […] The post What should I ask Joe Boyd?...

Jefferson swiftly undid twelve years of Federalism.  He allowed the Sedition Act to expire and adopted a more catholic naturalization law.  He reduced the federal bureaucracy — small even by today’s standards — particularly in the Treasury Department (a slap at Hamilton, who had been Secretary under Washington), slashing the number of employees by 40 […] The post Jefferson’s DOGE (that was then, this...

By A.N. Wilson, an excellent book and worthy of being addended to the year’s best non-fiction list.  In addition to appreciating the work of Goethe, which one can never do enough of, Wilson argues (with reasonable evidence) that Goethe was bisexual, including with Jacobi (!).  Goethe also had, at the very least, alcoholic tendencies, at […] The post *Goethe: A Faustian Life* appeared first...

Here is Stephen on Twitter, Harvard PhD, mostly he has been in the private sector.  The NYT has further information. Via Jon Hartley. The post Stephen Miran nominated to head the CEA appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsCommentsRelated StoriesArtificial Intelligence in the Knowledge EconomyThe show so far, DOGE editionAI is Not Slowing Down, Except for Stop Lights 

1. FT lunch with Abhijit Banerjee.  And his new book. 2. It seems Niall Ferguson has converted to Christianity? 3. Irish video warning California about its housing policies. 4. “Rwanda, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast and Tanzania, for example, are projected to grow by at least 6%.” 5. All We Imagine as Light is an excellent movie. […] The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on...

As you likely know, we have sent money to quite a few different individuals in different countries around the world.  And one thing I have learned is that there really are legitimate payments uses for crypto.  Very often international payments simply do not work that well.  We do not use crypto for this purpose, but […] The post One thing I have learned doing...

The rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to fundamentally reshape the knowledge economy by solving problems at scale. This paper introduces a framework to study this transformation, incorporating AI into an economy where humans form hierarchical firms: Less knowledgeable individuals become “workers” solving routine problems, while more knowledgeable individuals become “solvers,” assisting workers […] The post Artificial Intelligence in the Knowledge Economy...

Round one is over, and so far no progress and indeed steps backwards: President-elect Donald Trump’s last-minute demands for a congressional funding package were rejected by dozens of Republicans this week, foreshadowing the legislative challenges he could face next year — even with unified GOP control. The Republicans also revealed they are not willing to […] The post The show so far, DOGE edition...

1. Good overview on DOGE. 2. The impact of new products on ethical beliefs. 3. Speculative claims about the new economics of open source AI. 4. BBC interviews me about Milei. 5. Grok rates the top economists on X.  This seems better than AGI, right?  Four of the top tier are GMU-affiliated. 6. A lengthy […] The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on...

After 25.3 million fully autonomous miles a new study from Waymo and Swiss Re concludes: [T]he Waymo ADS significantly outperformed both the overall driving population (88% reduction in property damage claims, 92% in bodily injury claims), and outperformed the more stringent latest-generation HDV benchmark (86% reduction in property damage claims and 90% in bodily injury […] The post AI is Not Slowing Down, Except...

My analysis reveals a significant change in political beliefs since being incarcerated. There is an increased effect of changing political beliefs for women and people of color incarcerated. The effect reveals that people of color are becoming, either for the first time or further aligned, with the Republican Party since being incarcerated. That is from […] The post Incarceration sentences to ponder appeared first...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one hypothesis: The NBA has a salary cap, which prevents teams in major markets, such as the Los Angeles Lakers or New York Knicks, from snapping up all the talent.1 An unfortunate side effect it that is harder for all teams to bid for additional […] The post What is wrong with the NBA?...

The ACR metrics: Some more results. And this: Yupsie-dupsie, delivery of this: Happy holidays people, hope you are enjoying the presents! The post The new o3 model from OpenAI appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsCommentsRelated StoriesWhy you should be talking with gpt about philosophyThomas Storrs on elastic data supply (from my email)The Effects of Gender Integration on Men 

Hidden above the stone vaults of Notre-Dame de Paris, the 13th-century timber structure that once supported the cathedral’s steep lead roof was so extensive it was known as “the forest”. When the cathedral caught fire in 2019, the flames spread quickly through the lattice of oak beams, each one hewn from an individual tree by […] The post Recreating the past isn’t easy (but...

1. Andrew Batson reading from 2024. 2. On how to test more drugs (DOGE take note). 3. America is suddenly getting healthier.  Very much an overlooked point.  And: “Higher labor supply in the US accounts for 2 to 3 percentage points in extra health expenditure as a share of GDP and between 10% and one-third […] The post Friday assorted links appeared first on...

From this post on chip export bans: Didn’t we have a conversation where you said Chinese AI was so terrifying that we couldn’t consider any AI slowing or pause, because all of our efforts had to be put into preventing China from beating us in AI? And when I discussed reasons that this might not […] The post Scott Alexander on chips (from the...

Bob Sagers was walking around an indie music festival in Salt Lake City when a friendly stranger approached and asked for his number. “Has anyone ever told you that you have a Jesus look to you?” the man asked, according to Sagers, a 25-year-old who works as a cheesemonger at a grocery store. It wasn’t […] The post Those new service sector jobs, LDS...

I rarely like adaptations of classics on the big screen, but I give this one (trailer) high marks.  Ralph Fiennes plays Odysseus and Juliette Binoche has the role of Penelope — you cannot imagine better castings.  The film is fully serious, and understands the classic text extremely well, without being slavish to it.  It understands […] The post *The Return* appeared first on Marginal...

1. “First, female innovators are less connected than men. Second, at short network distances, researchers (especially men) adopt women’s ideas less.” 2. China coal consumption fact of the day uh oh. 3. John Cochrane on Bob Hall and consumption. 4. Are high stock prices and tech stagnation compatible? 5. OECD on the macro productivity gains […] The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on...

What are your top indicators of national aspiration? Percentage of GDP devoted to R&D would be a good conventional indicator. What about some unconventional indicators? My top five: 1) Top marginal tax rate 2) Space Program 3) Distance to travel to mother’s home 4) Tallest statue 5) Cultural exports On these, the US and India […] The post Unconventional Indicators of National Aspiration appeared...

Harvard magazine has an excellent interview with three scientists, Michael Mina, Douglas Melton and Stuart Schreiber, all highly regarded in their fields of life sciences, who have recently left Harvard for the private sector. Why did they leave? Mina tells an incredible story of what happened during the pandemic. At the time Mina was a […] The post Why are Top Scientists Leaving Harvard?...

In the UK, more than half of crimes are estimated to be caused by alcohol consumption. From Yuri, here are 51 others, not mainly about the UK: “More countries have produced a nuclear bomb than mass-produced a jet engine.” The post UK fact of the day (52 snippets from 2024) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsComments 

From my latest Bloomberg column: Why is the food so good? I have several overlapping hypotheses, most of them coming from my background as an economist. Interestingly, India’s culinary advantages can be traced to some good and some not-so-good aspects of Indian society. First, food supply chains here are typically very short. Trucking, refrigeration and […] The post Is Indian food the world’s best?...

The author is David A. Stockman, and the subtitle is Why the Reagan Revolution Failed.  This is for me a re-read, all DOGErs and aspiring DOGErs should give this book an initial read, as it covers why the Reagan attempts to pare back government largely failed.  Excerpt: But I hadn’t recoked that there would be […] The post *The Triumph of Politics* appeared first...

1. Scott Sumner on ngdp guardrails.  o1 pro responds. 2. Michael Grunwald on factory farming and its economics and environmental impact (NYT). 3. 100 economists who signed a petition against Milei. 4. More stablecoin progress. 5. Using AI to diagnose disease through retinal images. 6. Why did the Industrial Revolution happen? 7. Zvi on Gemini 2.0. […] The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on...

A company pioneering the use of fusion for commercial energy plans to build the nation’s first grid-scale fusion power plant in Virginia by the early 2030s, Gov. Glenn Youngkin and other state and company officials said Tuesday. Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS), based in Massachusetts, said it will invest billions of dollars to build the unique facility, […] The post A nuclear fusion plant in Virginia?...

I’ve talked with Gpt (as I like to call it) about Putnam and Quine on conceptual schemes. I’ve talked with it about Ζeno’s paradoxes. I’ve talked with it about behaviourism, causality, skepticism, supervenience, knowledge, humour, catastrophic moral horror, the container theory of time, and the relation between different conceptions of modes and tropes. I tried […] The post Why you should be talking with...

Karina Bao, San Francisco, to translate the autobiography of Morris Chang. Theodor Grether-Murray and Marta Bernardino, high school in Montreal, Portugal, noise cancelling technologies for the ocean. Jim Larsen, Denver, electricity and infrastructure and geothermal energy in Indonesia, Substack. Sunir Manandhar, San Francisco/Kathmandu, ports and transportation, and better automation in industrial vehicles. Ahad Hassan, NYC, […] The post Emergent Ventures 39th cohort appeared first...

Regarding your post yesterday Are LLMs running out of data?, the National Archives has 13.5 billion pieces of paper and only 240 million are digitized. Some of this is classified or otherwise restricted, but surely we can do better than less than 2%. NARA says they aim to increase this to 500 million by the end of 2026. Even with […] The post Thomas Storrs on elastic data supply...

1. This year’s Spanish Scrabble champion can’t speak Spanish and doesn’t read books. 2. The changing ancestry of Russian tsars. 3. Bankers using drugs, the latest version of the story (WSJ). 4. The importance of the opening of the Suez Canal. 5. Is there a Puritan name resurgence in America? 6. From a reader: Perplexity […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

Today on the MR Podcast Tyler and I talk about The Quest to Price Options. First, we run through the amazing history of option pricing theory from Bachelier to Black, Scholes and Merton with stops in between for Einstein, Samuelson, Thorpe and Kassouf. We then look at how understanding options changes how one sees the […] The post The Marginal Revolution Podcast–Options! appeared first...

I quite liked this new book by Tae Kim, offering a 245 pp. history of the company.  Here is a useful review from the WSJ. I can note that recently, a bit before Thanksgiving, I had the chance to visit Nvidia headquarters in Santa Clara, receive a tour, see some demos, and (a few days […] The post *The Nvidia Way* appeared first on...

Just wanted to ping you about a tool Joshua Gans and I launched publicly today after a year of trials at universities all over the world (and just a stupid amount of work!) which I think is up your alley. Idea is simple: AI should be 1) personalized to the student, 2) personalized to the […] The post Kevin Bryan and Joshua Gans have...

Let us hope the Biden administration does not do too much damage on its way out the door (WSJ): The U.S. is preparing rules that would restrict the sale of advanced artificial-intelligence chips in certain parts of the world in an attempt to limit China’s ability to access them, according to people familiar with the […] The post Midnight regulations on chip access appeared...

1. Using LLMs to simulate public opinion research.  And o1 doing the math Putnam exam. 2. New international trade survey paper by Pol Antras. 3. What Henry Oliver has been reading. 4. English-speaking Indian households.  And better than most Zakir Hussain video clips. 5. Polarization is declining are you happy now? 6. “China’s gross domestic […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...

I do not pretend to know what is going on, nor do I think it is aliens.  I do read: The sprawling Wright Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio is the latest military installation to report mysterious drones flying over its airspace, The War Zone has learned. “I can confirm small aerial systems were spotted over Wright Patterson between […] The post The epistemics of drone incursions appeared...

Deming, Ong and Summers have a good overview of long-run and very recent changes in the US labor market. Using a measure of occupational titles the authors find: The years spanning 1990-2017 were the most stable period in the history of the US labor market, going back nearly 150 years. It’s a bit too early […] The post Technological Disruption in the US Labor...

This is one of these “don’t bother reading through everything unless you already know what I am talking about” posts. Scott Sumner has a long rebuttal to o1 on monetary theory, offering many criticisms.  He does not like the quality of the answer given by the AI.  But I view the AI more positively here, […] The post o1 is still doing well on...