~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (573)

1. Writing an economics paper using LLMs entirely.  Sort of. 2. The most beautiful words in the English language? The o3 list is better. 3. The macroeconomics of tariffs and retaliation.  The real news here is the claim that, in the absence of foreign retaliation, the tariffs will make America better off.  Typically I am […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) recently tweeted that they wanted to bring back apparel manufacturing to the United States. Why would anyone want more jobs with long hours and low pay, whether historically in the US or currently in places like Bangladesh? Thanks in part to international trade, the real price of […] The post Has Clothing Declined in Quality? appeared...

The Hollywood Reporter has a good piece on Trump’s proposed movie tariffs: Even if such a tariff were legal — and there is some debate about whether Trump has the authority to impose such levies — industry experts are baffled as to how, in practice, a “movie tariff” would work. “What exactly does he want […] The post Tabarrok on the Movie Tariff appeared...

Guatemala has a slight edge on GNP per capita, according to World Bank sources $5762 vs. $5391, noting the gap has grown a bit since these 2023 measurements. When I visited El Salvador, people spoke enviously of the economy of Guatemala.  Over the last twenty-two years, the gdp growth rate in Guatemala has averaged 3.5%, […] The post Guatemala vs. El Salvador appeared first...

The United Arab Emirates will introduce artificial intelligence to the public school curriculum this year, as the Gulf country vies to become a regional powerhouse for AI development. The subject will be rolled out in the 2025-2026 academic year for kindergarten pupils through to 12th grade, state-run news agency WAM reported on Sunday. The course […] The post Who’s next? appeared first on Marginal...

With the far right ascendant in much of the west, it is notable that Latin America is not turning the same way, to a Trumpian closed economy. It is favouring leaders with more traditional agendas, based on free markets and open economies. This increases the region’s chances of escaping its damaging growth slump and attracting […] The post Latin America is swinging to the...

Instead of re-opening Alcatraz as super-max prison we should build a statue to America. I suggest “Lady Liberty of the Pacific”. The spirit of Columbia ala John Gast’s American Progress carrying a welcoming beacon-lamp in her raised right hand and a coiled fibre-optic cable in her left representing Bay Area technology. The post Lady Liberty of the Pacific appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.        ...

1. John Arnold on Enron. 2. On architecture for federal buildings (Bloomberg). 3. Chess players rely too much on familiar moves. 4. The right populist candidate did very well in the first round in the Romanian election. 5. More and more of Reddit is from LLMs. 6. Gold comes from magnetars? 7. Trump proposes eliminating the […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...

This study examines publications in three leading general economics journals from the 1960s through the 2020s, considering levels and trends in the demographics of authors, methodologies of the studies, and patterns of co-authorship. The average age of authors has increased nearly steadily; there has been a sharp increase in the fraction of female authors; the […] The post How are economics publications changing? appeared...

Between 1 and 5% of all work hours are currently assisted by generative AI, and respondents report time savings equivalent to 1.4% of total work hours. That is from a 2025 paper by Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, and David J. Deming. The post AI-assisted time saved at work so far appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to DJ. Google paid $95 a...

Ari Dutilh is a 19-year-old entrepreneur, community builder, and photographer.  This grant is to help continue our work on UltraRice, a project to solve malnutrition in India by using ultrasonic treatment to create cost-effective, nutrient-scalable rice. Rukmini S is Founder and Director of Data For India. Rukmini is an award-winning data journalist and won her first […] The post Emergent Ventures, 9th India cohort appeared...

Here is one link.  Of course the proposal is not easy to understand.  If it is a Jason Bourne movie, do they add up the number of scenes shot abroad and consider those as a percentage of the entire movie?  Does one scene shot abroad invoke the entire tariff?  o3 guesstimates that about half of […] The post Trump proposes 100% tariff on movies...

The robot is also just a fraction of the expense of integrating automation into a factory. A robot that stacks goods on to pallets can cost up to $150,000 to install when sensors, safety fencing, conveyors and other infrastructure are taken into account, according to Jorg Hendrikx, chief executives of robotics marketplace Qviro. Such costs […] The post Facts about robots appeared first on...

1. Some underrated effects on AI on privacy-related issues. 2. How far are you from India, measured in units of India? 3. Roots of Progress blog-building fellowship. 4. Naipaul memories. 5. “Despite rising income inequality, intergenerational mobility remained largely stable in both countries.” [Sweden and the US] 6. Todd Kashdan makes the case for the […] The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on...

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick: Ending the “de minimis loophole” is a big deal. This rule allowed foreign companies to avoid paying tariffs on small shipments, giving them an unfair advantage over American small businesses. To small businesses across the country: we have your back. The Value of De Minimis Imports by Fajgelbaum and Khandelwal: A […] The post Not De Minimis appeared first on...

Aurora Innovation, Inc. (NASDAQ: AUR) has successfully launched its commercial self-driving trucking service in Texas. Following the closure of its safety case, Aurora began regular driverless customer deliveries between Dallas and Houston this week. To date, the Aurora Driver has completed over 1,200 miles without a driver. The milestone makes Aurora the first company to […] The post Driverless trucks on their way? appeared...

But despite some ominous signs, a close look at the data shows that travel to the United States is largely holding up — at least so far. Nearly as many foreign travelers have arrived at American airports this year than during the same period last year, according to an analysis by The New York Times […] The post Has international travel to the U.S....

Berkshire Hathaway has realized a Sharpe ratio of 0.76, higher than any other stock or mutual fund with a history of more than 30 years, and Berkshire has a significant alpha to traditional risk factors. However, we find that the alpha becomes insignificant when controlling for exposures to Betting-Against-Beta and Quality-Minus-Junk factors. Further, we estimate […] The post Buffett’s Alpha appeared first on Marginal...

1. New terms for AI-assisted communication. 2. The great Alexandra Kleeman on Cronenberg and Shrouds (NYT). 3. Temperature and productivity in soccer. 4. Interview with David Autor, I would say do not be surprised when bad protectionism is what you get.  Many trade-skeptical economists are not updating their priors as they should, often because they […] The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on...

What does it mean to be wealthy and how should we factor in say, life expectancy? Lyman Stone offers an interesting measure, lifetime consumption, taking in account (roughly) both years lived and how much one consumes in those years. The post Lifetime Expected Consumption appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to PHinton. Should they be made Secretary of Defense? by SinisterIn reply...

In late 2022, Daisy Rodriguez, a U.S. citizen and owner of a small restaurant in the town of Sweetwater, Tennessee, said goodbye to her husband for what she thought would be a short stay in Guatemala. He had recently received approval to attend an immigration interview that would grant him a green card to live in […] The post That was then, this is now...

Germany’s domestic intelligence agency on Friday designated the far-right Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, as an “extremist endeavor,” a move that lowers hurdles for the spy agency in conducting certain kinds of surveillance on the party, the second-largest in Germany’s parliament. In a statement, the intelligence agency said the designation was “due to the […] The post Democracy in danger appeared first on...

Jensen: “First thing to understand: 50% of the world’s AI researchers are Chinese.” Here is the link. The post China estimate of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.      Related StoriesI am not the only one writing for the AIsDept. of Why Not?In defense of an online life 

1. Which are the best policies for longevity science? 2. House committee wants to strip antitrust enforcement powers from the FTC. 3. Rewrite HUD regulations using AI. 4. Ridiculous claims about New Hampshire. 5. The indifference engine. 6. Takacs Quartet at age fifty (NYT). The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to mento. Longevity drugs have a very...