~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (547)

We use an advanced model of the global economy to consider a set of scenarios consistent with the proposal to impose a minimum 60% tariff against Chinese imports and blanket minimum 10% tariff against all other US imports. The model’s structure, which includes imperfect competition in increasing-returns industries, is documented in Balistreri, Böhringer, and Rutherford […] The post The costs of U.S: tariff imposition...

Oil companies are conveying an unlikely message to the GOP and its presidential candidate: Spare President Biden’s signature climate law. At least the parts that benefit the oil industry. In discussions with former President Trump’s campaign and his allies in Congress, oil giants including Exxon Mobil, Phillips 66, and Occidental Petroleum have extolled the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act. Many in […] The post That was then, this is now…...

1. Ross Douthat on late term abortion (NYT). 2. That’s a lot of AI subscriptions.  Somehow I found that link hilarous. 3. Centre Pompidou outpost in…New Jersey? 4. Poland to suspend asylum rights temporarily. 5. Michael Pettis profile (WSJ…p.s. prices are flexible in the medium-term). 6. Another case of qualified scientists getting actual public policy […] The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on...

Here is a longish essay, here is one excerpt: Economists often talk about “factors of production”: things like labor, land, and capital. The phrase “marginal returns to labor/land/capital” captures the idea that in a given situation, a given factor may or may not be the limiting one – for example, an air force needs both […] The post Dario Amodei on AI and the...

…it’s notable that if you look at the major deregulator measures of the past four years, it mostly happened under Jimmy Carter (Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978, Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, Motor Carrier Act of 1980, Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980) or Bill Clinton (Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency […] The post Matt Yglesias on regulation and deregulation...

PIER Plans will be evaluated as part of the merit review process and will be used to inform funding decisions. The review criterion, Quality and Efficacy of the Plan for Promoting Inclusive and Equitable Research, will be included as one of the merit review criteria that peer reviewers will use to evaluate applications. The Office […] The post From the Department of Energy appeared...

1. My podcast with Minus One. 2. Why are fewer men going to college? 3. Warren Nutter’s Soviet research for the CIA. 4. Those new service sector jobs: “This Texas Mom Charges Over $1,000 for Her Elaborate Pumpkin Displays.” 5. Pizza Hut Will Deliver Your Resume Printed on a Pizza Box to Prospective Employers (NYC only). […] The post Friday assorted links appeared first on...

The post Optimus personal assistant robot appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Dinwar. I think you're conflating invention and ... by DylanIn reply to EVCoyote. SpaceX is about to launch a massive ... by It Ain't Necessarily SoIn reply to Hazel Meade. Circa 2019, I came back to the ... by Mark BahnerLOL. Elon has gone all in on Trump so...

The U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation minority staff (Committee), which oversees federal science agencies including NSF, analyzed 32,198 Prime Award grants NSF awarded to 2,443 different entities with project start dates between January 2021 and April 2024. Committee analysis found 3,483 grants, more than ten percent of all NSF grants and totaling […] The post U.S.A. facts of the day appeared...

Starting today: Kalshi will pay you 4.05% interest on both your cash and open positions. Here is the link. The post Arbitrage! (at multiple levels) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to rsm. We are now in the zombie Rayward era. by NoIn reply to rayward. So, were the rumors of your death by ... by rsmAnother indication that the NGDP gap...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt: First, whenever possible it is better to use private insurance, such as homeowner’s insurance and flood insurance, to protect against loss. One of the functions of insurance is to make losers at least partially whole after the fact, but another is to […] The post How economists think about victims of...

1. “The average [Nobel] laureate grew up in an 87–90th percentile household.” 2. Scriabin. 3. Is lack of automation the problem with U.S. ports? 4. The conflict of interest discount in the marketplace of ideas. 5. Does a sense of beauty emerge spontaneously in AI? The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Stephen Cooper. “That being said”...

The Council for German Orthography (RdR) caused a stir amongst grammar perfectionists on Monday when it announced that as of 2025, an apostrophe used to indicate possession will be considered correct. Since 2004, the RdR has been considered the leading source on Standard High German spelling and grammar, and is relied on for school textbooks in Germany, […] The post “Das was damals, das ist jetzt”...

In 2009, 2010, and 2011 respectively, Greek government interest payments as a share of revenues were 13.4%, 14.7%, and 16.8% respectively, based on a 2012 IMF report.1 If one removes “Social Contributions” linked to government programs from the revenue measure, the ratio peaked at 24.1% in 2011. Of course, since Greece had adopted the euro it […] The post Joshua Rauh on fiscal sustainability appeared...

Here is one link, I am watching it now.  And possibly with the aid of Adam Back?  No opinion of my own on this one! The post HBO film says Bitcoin creator is Peter Todd appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Jimmy. Sorry, *Back. by JimmyIn reply to Anoniemoose. I have no dog in this fight, but are ... by JimmyThe...

We use a controlled experiment to show that ability and belief calibration jointly determine the benefits of working with Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI improves performance more for people with low baseline ability. However, holding ability constant, AI assistance is more valuable for people who are calibrated, meaning they have accurate beliefs about their own ability. […] The post Who benefits from working with AI?...

1. “…slowing life history speed increases maternal investment (MI) into offspring…”  A new look at the Flynn Effect. 2. David Beckworth podcast with Jonathon Hazell. 3. Not the worst “Top books of the century” list. 4. J. Zachary Mazlish on capital income taxation. 5. Scott Sumner on my first podcast with Alex T. 6. 30k […] The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on...

We interrupt our regularly scheduled series of podcasts on the 1970s–first one here on inflation and monetary policy–to bring you a new podcast in honor of next week’s Nobel Prize in economics. Who will win? Who should win? Who should have won but didn’t? Who won but shouldn’t have? Here’s one bit: COWEN: I would […] The post The Marginal Revolution Podcast: The Nobel...

Bryan Caplan will feel vindicated: This paper asks whether universal pre-kindergarten (UPK) raises parents’ earnings and how much these earnings effects matter for evaluating the economic returns to UPK programs. Using a randomized lottery design, we estimate the effects of enrolling in a full-day UPK program in New Haven, Connecticut on parents’ labor market outcomes […] The post Further evidence for the babysitting theory...

1. What drove the Nashville housing boom? 2. One major Korean ISP flags us as “harmful.” 3. Changes in Chinese art museums. 4. “We find that the fade-out effect is critically-linked to the share of classroom peers assigned to preschool access—with enough treated peers the classic fade-out effect is muted.” 5. Jason Brennan is now […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...

It is steeper than I had thought: The final labor market trend we uncovered was a very rapid decline in retail sales jobs, show in the figure below. Retail sales hovered at around 7.5 percent of employment from 2003 to 2013 but has since fallen to only 5.7 percent of employment, a decline about 25 […] The post The decline in retail sales jobs...

The NHS in Northern Ireland is the worst in the UK.  During the quarter April/June 2021, over 349,000 people were waiting for a first appointment, 53 percent for over a year, an increase of 39,000 for the same period in 2020.  Adjusted for population size, waiting lists in Northern Ireland are 100 times greater than […] The post Northern Ireland fact of the day...

Fiona Maddocks, Goodbye Russia: Rachmaninoff in Exile.  Captures the spirit of the man and his music, and a good addition to the growing literature on European cultural exiles in America.  Readable and to the point. Kurt Weyland, Democracy’s Resilience to Populism’s Threat.  This book has useful data, and perhaps it is a useful corrective to […] The post What I’ve been reading appeared first...

In addition, there were no textbooks to be found, except in libraries, where the numbers who tried to get in were so immense that readers could only access the building for one hour, according to surname. An enterprising Shanghai publisher began reprinting textbooks from the early 1960s, which soon were worth their weight in gold. […] The post The value of books on tractors...