~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (62)

I won’t double indent, but this is not by me, though I agree with it: “I agree with your read re Argentina’s history of fiscal stability. From this paper (unclear if the data is accurate), here is Argentina’s deficit from 1960 to 2016 or so: [See Figure 3 here] Notice 2003-2009 is the only time […] The post Quick tour of Argentina’s fiscal deficit...

Barro, CPI rate correlation with covid spending in 37 countries pic.twitter.com/AD47gPTbYb — 161phi (@161phi) January 21, 2024 A year or so ago I recall telling Bari Weiss in a podcast that the inflation was perhaps half real shocks, half an aggregate demand problem.  Don’t let the revisionists talk you into the hardcore RBC view! The post No, Covid spending wasn’t the only factor, but…...

Here is one interesting hypothesis: Despite the persistence of anti-Black racism, White Americans report feeling worse off than Black Americans. We suggest that some White Americans may report low well-being despite high group-level status because of perceptions that they are falling behind their in-group. Using census-based quota sampling, we measured status comparisons and health among […] The post Who feels the pinch of status...

There is a new paper on this topic, with what seems to be very good data: This paper examines the relationship between downward nominal wage rigidity and employment outcomes using linked employer-employee data. Wage rigidity prevents 27.1 percent of counterfactual wage cuts, with a standard deviation of 19.2 percent across establishments. An establishment with the […] The post How sticky are wages in nominal...

The R&D spending of Amazon is greater than the R&D spending of all companies and government in France. Alphabet beats Italy. Pepsi’s R&D spending beats all sources in Nigeria. Here is more from Ethan Mollick. The post U.S.A. facts of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Zach. Technically the accounting standards makers ... by zztopIn reply to zztop. R&D...

In September I alerted you to a crowdfunding campaign to produce a dominant assurance contract/refund bonus platform. Many of you stepped up and it’s now and up and running! The platform is called EnsureDone. It’s starting up small, with just a few projects, but already the projects are quite interesting. MakeSunsets, for example, had a […] The post World’s First Dominant Assurance Contract Platform...

We assess statistical power and excess statistical significance among 31 leading economics general interest and field journals using 22,281 parameter estimates from 368 distinct areas of economics research. Median statistical power in leading economics journals is very low (only 7%), and excess statistical significance is quite high (19%). Power this low and excess significance this […] The post Department of Uh-Oh, economic research edition...

Maybe so: We administer a Turing Test to AI Chatbots. We examine how Chatbots behave in a suite of classic behavioral games that are designed to elicit characteristics such as trust, fairness, risk-aversion, cooperation, \textit{etc.}, as well as how they respond to a traditional Big-5 psychological survey that measures personality traits. ChatGPT-4 exhibits behavioral and […] The post Are chatbots better than we are?...

Contrary to what some naysayers might claim, the paradox is real: Some studies show that living conditions, such as economy, gender equality, and education, are associated with the magnitude of psychological sex differences. We systematically and quantitatively reviewed 54 articles and conducted new analyses on 27 meta-analyses and large-scale studies to investigate the association between […] The post A Systematic Review and New Analyses...

That is the theme of my latest Bloomberg column, here is the introductory bit: The broader historical trends show that the US tax-and-transfer system is getting more progressive, including in recent years. And the US government is increasingly redistributing wealth to the bottom half of the income distribution. And: The best information indicates that transfer income is […] The post Income redistribution through taxes and transfers...

Fewer women reported being satisfied with the climate in the economics profession in 2023 compared to five years ago, despite efforts during that time to improve conditions for women in the field, according to a new survey. About 17% of women in economics said they strongly agreed or agreed with a statement about being satisfied […] The post How women are perceiving the economics...

This paper studies important determinants of adult self-control using population-representative data and exploiting Germany’s division as quasi-experimental variation. We find that former East Germans have substantially more self-control than West Germans and provide evidence for government surveillance as a possible underlying mechanism. We thereby demonstrate that institutional factors can shape people’s self-control. Moreover, we find […] The post The culture that was East German...

That is the topic of my Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt: One study of Ethiopia looked at the psychological impact of raising aspirations. The researchers created a randomized control trial, showing one group of people short films about business and entrepreneurial success in the community. Six months later, those who had seen the films had worked […] The post The economic returns to psychological interventions...

Here is the underlying John-Burn Murdoch FT piece, pointer here.  And a text excerpt: Ruxandra Teslo, one of a growing community of progress-focused writers at the nexus of science, economics and policy, argues that the growing scepticism around technology and the rise in zero-sum thinking in modern society is one of the defining ideological challenges […] The post We need more talk of progress...