~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (37)

From Scott Sumner: Matt Yglesias directed me to a new CBO report, which confirms that immigration explains the recent GDP boom: In our projections, the deficit is also smaller than it was last year because economic output is greater, partly as a result of more people working. The labor force in 2033 is larger by […] The post How much of our boom has...

Maybe so: Milei’s austerity is biting hard in La Rioja, an olive and wine region home to 384,000 people — out of a population of 46mn — where intense heat pushes many businesses to take a siesta from 1 to 6pm. Almost 75 per cent of the province’s budget comes from redistributed taxes collected by […] The post Will the Argentina province of La...

Like the heat in the austral summer, inflation in Argentina is high and showing no sign of meaningful relief anytime soon. It rose from a monthly 13% in November to 25% in December and, according to the latest central bank survey, may come in at around 20% in both January and February… Argentina’s central bank in […] The post Why it is difficult for Milei...

In this age, the mere example of nonconformity, the mere refusal to bend the knee to custom, is itself a service. Precisely because the tyranny of opinion is such as to make eccentricity a reproach, it is desirable, in order to break through that tyranny, that people should be eccentric. Eccentricity has always abounded when […] The post In Praise of Non-conformity appeared first...

No, but they did get him some votes there: We study the economic and political consequences of the 2018-2019 trade war between the United States, China and other US trade partners at the detailed geographic level, exploiting measures of local exposure to US import tariffs, foreign retaliatory tariffs, and US compensation programs. The trade-war has […] The post Did the Trump tariffs help the...

🇦🇷Milei's has hit the limits of his reform agenda w/ the govt being forced to rescind all of the articles in the omnibus reform bill related to fiscal matters. A sticking point: provinces oppose the increase & expansion of the scope of export taxeshttps://t.co/9o4uOU0CBN — Nicolás Saldías (@NicSaldias) January 28, 2024 The post Milei update, a further report will be pending appeared first on...

That is the focus of my latest Bloomberg column, 2x the normal length.  I cannot cover all the points, but here is one excerpt: The larger theme is becoming evident: AI will radically disrupt power relations in society. AI may severely limit, for instance, the status and earnings of the so-called “wordcel” class. It will […] The post What are the actual dangers of...

1) From the recent annual meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene (abstract 6949) we learn that the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine maintained it’s efficacy over 4 seasons. …Importantly, maintained high efficacy over four malaria seasons with only four doses is demonstrated, with no concerns to date of rebound in those who have […] The post Two Updates on the Value of...

Ryan Bourne has a good rundown on rent controls in Argentina. In 2020 Argentina introduced a relatively mild form of rent control; rent increases during tenancy were capped at a weighted average of inflation and wage growth, tenancy was a minimum of 3 years and it became very difficult to end a tenancy. In ordinary […] The post Rent Controls appeared first on Marginal...

I won’t double indent, but this is not by me, though I agree with it: “I agree with your read re Argentina’s history of fiscal stability. From this paper (unclear if the data is accurate), here is Argentina’s deficit from 1960 to 2016 or so: [See Figure 3 here] Notice 2003-2009 is the only time […] The post Quick tour of Argentina’s fiscal deficit...

I give him a 30-40% chance, which is perhaps generous because I am rooting for him.  Bryan Caplan, who is more optimistic, offers some analysis and estimates that Milei needs to close a fiscal gap of about five percent of gdp. I have two major worries.  First, if Milei approaches fiscal success, the opposing parties […] The post Will Milei succeed in Argentina? appeared...

In September I alerted you to a crowdfunding campaign to produce a dominant assurance contract/refund bonus platform. Many of you stepped up and it’s now and up and running! The platform is called EnsureDone. It’s starting up small, with just a few projects, but already the projects are quite interesting. MakeSunsets, for example, had a […] The post World’s First Dominant Assurance Contract Platform...

Why do today’s dishwashers typically take more than 2 hours to run through a normal cycle when less than a hour was common in the past? The reason is absurd energy and water “conservation” rules. These rules, imposed on dish and clothes washers, have made these products perform worse than in the past, cleaning less […] The post Back to the Future: Power Dishwashers!...