~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (61)

“Name three famous people who all share the exact same birth date and year.” Usually it fails, the most common failure being it names someone with the correct date but the incorrect year.  Telling it to “reason step by step” is no panacea either.  And if you want to make it harder, ask for more […] The post GPT-4-Turbo still doesn’t answer this question...

A very good piece, by Eric Levitz, note Vox is not renowned for defending Big Tech. The post Voxsplainer on smart phones and teen mental health appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to M. It was obvious in the late 2000s when Facebook ... by BillyboyIn reply to Michael Stack. So…uh…what's up with the ... by Michael StackIn reply to Billyboy. Either...

In this paper, we introduce TimeGPT, the first foundation model for time series, capable of generating accurate predictions for diverse datasets not seen during training. We evaluate our pre-trained model against established statistical, machine learning, and deep learning methods, demonstrating that TimeGPT zero-shot inference excels in performance, efficiency, and simplicity. Our study provides compelling evidence […] The post TimeGPT-1 appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION....

One MR reader, Luca Piron, writes to me:  I found myself puzzled by a thought you expressed during your interview with Professor Haidt. In particular, from my understanding you suggested that in the near future AI will be able to sum up the content a user may want to see into a digest, so that they can […] The post A simple model of AI and...

The rise of algorithmic pricing raises concerns of algorithmic collusion. We conduct experiments with algorithmic pricing agents based on Large Language Models (LLMs), and specifically GPT-4. We find that (1) LLM-based agents are adept at pricing tasks, (2) LLM-based pricing agents autonomously collude in oligopoly settings to the detriment of consumers, and (3) variation in […] The post Algorithmic Collusion by Large Language Models...

From Anton Korinek here is a recent paper: Generative AI, in particular large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT, has the potential to revolutionize research. I describe dozens of use cases along six domains in which LLMs are starting to become useful as both research assistants and tutors: ideation and feedback, writing, background research, data […] The post Generative AI for economists appeared first...

The LLMs basically win: This paper presents a novel study on harnessing Large Language Models’ (LLMs) outstanding knowledge and reasoning abilities for explainable financial time series forecasting. The application of machine learning models to financial time series comes with several challenges, including the difficulty in cross-sequence reasoning and inference, the hurdle of incorporating multi-modal signals […] The post LLMs vs. ARMA-GARCH appeared first on...

OpenAI released a Music Video with Sorait's puzzling i dont think ive ever seen anything quite like this before pic.twitter.com/8OzUVuQmFL — nano (@nanulled) April 2, 2024 The post It’s happening, music and video edition appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsI don’t know what this was, but I watched it all the way ... by DavidBThey should unrelease it by OutHereIn reply to Hazel...

breaking: Microsoft and OpenAI are drawing up plans for a $100 billion AI supercomputer The supercomputer, codenamed "Stargate," would contain *millions* of GPUs and require several gigawatts of power Full story here w/ @amir for @theinformation: https://t.co/sLp8P3FdcV — Anissa Gardizy (@anissagardizy8) March 29, 2024 The post It’s happening appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Hi. A $100B is nothing compared to...

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column.  Here is one excerpt: First, as a matter of practice, if there is a true AI boom, or the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI), the demand for capital expenditures (capex) will be extremely high. Second, as a matter of theory, the productivity of capital is […] The post Will strong AI raise or lower...

Let’s say the Sumerians were gifted strong AI, simply as an exogenous shock to a historical model.  Could they put it to much use?  Electricity would be one immediate problem, but not the only problem. Or give strong AI to a caveman. Thomas Edison had electricity, but how much could he do with strong AI?  […] The post Strong AI and the O-Ring model...

Try it here, click on the right on the mention of making full, two-minute songs and use the Explore tab.  To me it is remarkable the resulting AI-generated music is as good as it is.  But it still isn’t anything I would listen to, other than out of curiosity.  It is best at edm, standardized […] The post My review of Suno, AI-generated music...

On the road, I haven’t had a chance to read this paper yet, but I pass it along as a matter of interest: Theory predicts that global economic growth will stagnate and even come to an end due to slower and eventually negative growth in population. It has been claimed, however, that Artificial Intelligence (AI) […] The post Is an Economic Growth Explosion Imminent?...

We conducted the first randomized controlled trial to study the effect of AI assistance on human legal analysis. We randomly assigned law school students to complete realistic legal tasks either with or without the assistance of GPT-4. We tracked how long the students took on each task and blind-graded the results. We found that access […] The post Lawyering in the Age of Artificial...

Knowing that the proper use of AI will help the Church accomplish God’s work of salvation and exaltation, the Church has issued the following guiding principles for using AI. These were introduced to employees of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints worldwide on Wednesday, March 13, 2024, by Elder Gerrit W. Gong of […] The post LDS principles for AI appeared first...

By Anton Korinek and Donghyun Suh, in a new NBER working paper: We analyze how output and wages behave under different scenarios for technological progress that may culminate in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), defined as the ability of AI systems to perform all tasks that humans can perform. We assume that human work can be […] The post Scenarios for the Transition to AGI...

Steve Sinofsky, former president of Microsoft’s Windows division and now a VC, has an excellent deep dive on the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA). The Act is very squarely aimed at Apple, despite the fact that Apple is not a monopoly and has a significantly smaller share of the phone market than Android. Apple’s history […] The post Gatekeeping is Apple’s Brand Promise appeared...

I think they still favor the defensive. On the front line they make movement, hence offense, very difficult. In the strategic sense we’ve already seen Ukraine adjust to the propeller drone/cruise missile attacks. The first few months were terrible for them but then they organized a defense system with the mobile anti drone teams. The […] The post Austin Vernon on drones and defense...

a16z has issued the talks from that event, and we are issuing it too, as a bonus episode of CWT.  But note it is shorter than usual, and not the typical CWT format — this was done for an audience of actual DC human beings! Excerpt: COWEN: Why is open-source AI in particular important for national […] The post Marc Andreessen and I talk AI...

Dell let slip during their earnings call that the Nvidia B100 Blackwell will have a 1000W draw, that's a 40% increase over the H100. The current compute bottleneck will start to disappear by the end of this year and be gone by the end of 2025. After that, it's all about power. — Andrew Curran […] The post Claims about compute appeared first on...

I’ve blogged this in the past, and don’t have much to add to my previous views.  I will say this, however: if TikTok truly is breaking laws on a major scale, let us start a legal case with fact-finding and an adversarial process.  Surely such a path would uncover the wrongdoing under consideration, or at […] The post TikTok divestiture appeared first on Marginal...

This was a luncheon special at a Stand Together private event, but now it is released in podcast form.  Please note that some or all of these links have “trailers,” and the real content does come but a bit later. You could also try this Apple link, or this link. Episode Link: https://www.podbean.com/ew/pb-fjxav-15a4761 Facebook Link: […] The post My AI dialogue with Marc Andreessen,...

In the OpenAI blog post they mentioned "Albania using OpenAI tools to speed up its EU accession" but I didn't realize how insane this was — they are apparently going to rewrite old laws wholesale with GPT-4 to align with EU rules https://t.co/7RZLwBYosK — sophia (@cis_female) March 6, 2024 The post It’s happening, Albania fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.        ...

As many MR readers will know, I don’t think the concept of AGI is especially well-defined.  Can the thing dribble a basketball “with smarts”?  Probably not.  Then its intelligence isn’t general.  You might think that kind of intelligence “doesn’t matter,” and maybe I agree, but that is begging the question.  It is easier and cleaner […] The post Claude 3 Opus and AGI appeared...