~marginalrevolution | Bookmarks (564)

Forthcoming from the QJE, here is a new paper by Andrea Matanga: The Neolithic revolution saw the independent development of agriculture among at least seven unconnected hunter-gatherer populations. I propose that the rapid spread of agricultural techniques resulted from increased climatic seasonality causing hunter-gatherers to adopt a sedentary lifestyle and store food for the season […] The post Seasonality and the Invention of Agriculture...

1. Are Indian women stronger relative supporters of Modi? 2. Apple to build on-device AI? 3. The remarkable economic recovery of Sri Lanka?. 4. “UK alcohol-related deaths up one-third on pre-pandemic levels…” (FT) 5. New Cass Sunstein book on campus free speech. 6. The Straussian approach to the new Taylor Swift. 7. Macro Musings podcast […] The post Monday assorted links appeared first on...

Take a look at how the number of federal regulations and policies governing research at universities has dramatically increased over the years. This adding an enormous cost of doing research. (Source COGR) pic.twitter.com/ezqAsLUIIj — Denis Wirtz (@deniswirtz) April 20, 2024 Via Matt Yglesias. The post Deregulate our universities appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsJust replace “healthcare” and “hospital” with “higher ... by JK...

Dobbs, of course, was the Supreme Court decision saying that the constitution does not provide a right to abortion, thus leading to restrictions on abortion in many states. The pictures is from The Economist, the original paper is here. The post Tying the Knot appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Mark Bahner. Cool. You play “Most National ... by mikeInThe716In reply...

These are usually worth pondering, as at the very least you will learn something.  Here is a hate-worthy paragraph from an earlier Bloomberg column of mine: …note that higher real estate prices, to the extent they result from immigrant demands, largely translate into capital gains for homeowners — most of whom are native-born. To be […] The post Arguments that (almost) everyone hates appeared...

If someone demographically normal and not especially at-risk wants to serve as a guinea pig, what is the optimal allocation of that resource? Is there any formal discussion of this question? I know they say “there is always an Effective Altruism blog post,” but is there? Mostly I have medicine and medical experimentation in mind, […] The post Guinea pig questions appeared first on...

1. Rasheed Griffith reggae playlist. 2. Poland got rid of compulsory homework for grade school. 3. Suicide rate trends for German teen females. 4. Important job ad for finding and cultivating talent in Brazil, no Portuguese required. 5. Plans for the REPO market? 6. Claims about microwave missiles, speculative. 7. Abundance Institute. The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         Comments#6...

The amazing Gukesh (17 years old!)  is half a point ahead with one round remaining today.  Three players — Nakamura, Caruana, and Nepo — trail him by half a point.  Naka is playing Gukesh, and of course Naka will try to win.  But what about Caruana vs. Nepo?  Yes, each must try to win (no […] The post The game theory of the final...

He is one of the greatest of living American historians, here is from Wikipedia: Alan Shaw Taylor (born June 17, 1955) is an American historian and scholar who is the Thomas Jefferson Memorial Foundation Professor of History at the University of Virginia. A specialist in the early history of the United States, Taylor has written extensively about the colonial […] The post What should I ask Alan Taylor?...

That is the new Daron Acemoglu paper, and he is skeptical about its overall economic effects.  Here is part of the abstract: Using existing estimates on exposure to AI and productivity improvements at the task level, these macroeconomic effects appear nontrivial but modest—no more than a 0.71% increase in total factor productivity over 10 years. […] The post “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” appeared...

Two economists from the Harvard Growth Lab (Shah and Sturzenegger) estimate that the average transport costs for those who are employed in South Africa is equal to 57% of net wages when time to commute is accounted for. Here is the whole John McDermott tweet storm, in part that is the spatial legacy from the […] The post South Africa fact of the day...

1. Ross Douthat on whether the internet is the enemy of progress (NYT). 2. “This year, Sara and Justin Ilse finished building a floor for their home’s 230-square-foot entryway out of 65,507 pennies.” (WSJ) 3. Commentary on Zuck and Dwarkesh. 4. New open access book on Moonshots and the New Industrial Policy. 5. The decline […] The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on...

Maybe, but maybe not: Amid the current U.S.-China technological race, the U.S. has imposed export controls to deny China access to strategic technologies. We document that these measures prompted a broad-based decoupling of U.S. and Chinese supply chains. Once their Chinese customers are subject to export controls, U.S. suppliers are more likely to terminate relations […] The post Decoupling from China? appeared first on...

I saw the film as having very definite politics, and yes I am aware of the pronouncements of the director — ignore them!  I am writing about the movie, what was on the screen. The seceding states — California, Texas, and Florida — all have substantial Latino population segments.  The core political message is that […] The post The politics of *Civil War* (full...

The post Dwarkesh interviews Mark Zuckerberg on Llama 3 and more appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Anon. I agree by BlixyIn reply to Naveen K. I don't think he , personally is that ... by mentoAre you updating yet? If you aren't, are you buying Nvidia? by jason yIn reply to maybe. He is a dimwit. I’ve always felt that...

1. Andrej Karpathy on Llama 3. 2. The PEN awards are on the brink of collapse. 3. These were my fiscal, political and other predictions from 2010. 4. AI is being integrated into social media — now.  Social media will change. 5. New Yorker Music critic Alex Ross cites Fischer Black on noise. 6. How […] The post Friday assorted links appeared first on...

When I post about the skyrocketing price of housing and the need to build, commentators (include some of the most astute commentators on MR), will sometimes object by pointing to the increasing and historically high number of houses per capita. They question how this aligns with rising prices and wave vaguely towards factors like monopoly […] The post Why a Housing Shortage Exists Despite...

With a group of friends I was having a chat about the merits of the current vs. past America.  Battle of the Ancients and Moderns!  I generally favor current times, but not unconditionally.  So I promised them a list of what I missed from the past.  To be clear, these are personal judgments, not claims […] The post What I am nostalgic about appeared...

All of this is from Devin Pope, in response to Lyman Stone (and myself).  Here was my original post on the paper, concerning the degree of religious attendance.  I won’t double indent, but here is Devin and Devin alone: “I’m super grateful for Lyman’s willingness to engage with my recent research on measuring religious worship […] The post Response from Devin Pope, on religious...

Latin American immigrants are starting businesses at more than twice the rate of the U.S. population as a whole. The jump in Latino entrepreneurship has driven up the overall share of new businesses owned by immigrants, who accounted for 36% of launches last year compared with 25% in 2019, according to a new analysis of […] The post U.S.A. fact of the day appeared...

The craziest LLaMA 3 reveal: The 400B+ version of the model is **on par with Claude 3 Opus**, and it's still training. Soon, we'll have a better-than-Opus, fully open-source model. The implications are huge. pic.twitter.com/chaDp7jaCa — Matt Shumer (@mattshumer_) April 18, 2024 Here is from Meta. The post Claims about claims (it’s happening) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.         CommentsIn reply to Brendan Long....

1. Interview with Ulrike Malmendier, a regional thinker in the best sense of the term. 2. “Paying Off People’s Medical Debt Has Little Impact on Their Lives, Study Finds.” (NYT)  Model that. 3. Another look at suicide rates. 4. Should you have privacy rights to your brainwaves? (NYT)  And should you have the right to […] The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on...

Only rarely: Recent social movements stand out by their spontaneous nature and lack of stable leadership, raising doubts on their ability to generate political change. This article provides systematic evidence on the effects of protests on public opinion and political attitudes. Drawing on a database covering the quasi-universe of protests held in the United States, […] The post Do protests matter? appeared first on...

Here is the audio, video, and transcript, along with almost thirty minutes of audience questions, filmed in Miami.  Here is the episode summary: Tyler and Peter Thiel dive deep into the complexities of political theology, including why it’s a concept we still need today, why Peter’s against Calvinism (and rationalism), whether the Old Testament should […] The post My excellent Conversation with Peter Thiel...